Spring Offensive Escalates in Ukraine with Heavy Casualties and Limited Gains
ISW and Ukrainian officials say Russia has begun a Spring-Summer 2026 offensive across Ukraine, intensifying ground attacks (619 strikes over March 17–20) and producing thousands of casualties in a week, but ISW expects only limited territorial gains rather to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026. Moscow is deploying tens of thousands of new forces, betting on spring weather to blunt Ukrainian drones and artillery, and expanding permanent basing in Belarus to support long‑range operations. Russia is also turning to private military companies to defend critical infrastructure amid economic strains, with gold reserves shrinking and energy revenues funding wartime spending. Ukraine continues long-range strikes against Russia’s energy network, and Russia conducted a large drone campaign (about 251 drones) while Ukrainian forces downed roughly 234. Diplomacy includes US–Ukrainian talks in Miami focused on security guarantees and humanitarian issues. The overall picture remains costly and attritional, with uncertain gains for both sides.
