Iran Moves to Normalize Hormuz Control Through Bilateral Transit Deals
ISW/CTP warn that Iran is using the ceasefire to push bilateral transit agreements and hefty ‘security’ fees for vessels outside those deals to normalize control of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially restoring traffic to pre-war levels if successful. European post-war security deployments are unlikely to disrupt this scheme while the US continues port interdictions (including seizing the Skywave and redirecting the Celestial Sea). The IRGC threatens wider escalation, and Pakistan and Qatar are mediating between the US and Iran as Hezbollah engages in Lebanon; Iran’s internal dynamics show limited enrichment progress post-war damage. The overall picture suggests a gradual normalization of Hormuz transit that could undermine Western leverage to reopen the strait, though the outcome remains uncertain.
