LA Times reports intelligence that Iran plotted to kill Trump and other US officials, with threats rising since Suleimani’s assassination and Khamenei’s February death. Tehran’s vowed revenge could normalize foreign assassinations and jeopardize diplomacy, complicating peace as US-Israeli actions escalate tensions.
At 100 days, the US-Israel campaign against Iran has devolved into a grinding stalemate despite a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire; the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and casualties continue to mount across Iran and Lebanon, with Iran’s deaths at least 3,468 and Lebanon’s at least 3,593, plus fatalities in Israel (26) and US forces (13) and over 150 elsewhere in the region, while more than a million people in Lebanon have been displaced and the fighting expands to additional fronts.
ISW/CTP warn that Iran is using the ceasefire to push bilateral transit agreements and hefty ‘security’ fees for vessels outside those deals to normalize control of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially restoring traffic to pre-war levels if successful. European post-war security deployments are unlikely to disrupt this scheme while the US continues port interdictions (including seizing the Skywave and redirecting the Celestial Sea). The IRGC threatens wider escalation, and Pakistan and Qatar are mediating between the US and Iran as Hezbollah engages in Lebanon; Iran’s internal dynamics show limited enrichment progress post-war damage. The overall picture suggests a gradual normalization of Hormuz transit that could undermine Western leverage to reopen the strait, though the outcome remains uncertain.
Former President Donald Trump posted an AI-generated image warning Iran of a coming storm as reports surface that the US and Israel are planning renewed strikes, potentially reviving Operation Epic Fury. Officials say escalation plans against Iranian targets are being considered, while Iran moves to regulate Strait of Hormuz traffic amid heightened tensions that threaten global oil routes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war with Iran is not over and that the U.S. and Israel still aim to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, citing remaining enriched uranium, enrichment sites, proxies, and ballistic missiles. Trump rejected Iran’s counteroffer to a U.S. peace proposal, and The Wall Street Journal described Iran’s response as seeking separate nuclear talks, partial dilution of its highly enriched uranium with some material sent to a third country, and conditions to end port blockades and open the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. exits the deal. Iran reportedly suspended enrichment for a shorter period than the proposed 20-year moratorium and rejected dismantling facilities. The conflict has driven energy prices higher as mediators in Pakistan seek a peace agreement, and Trump heads to China to meet Xi.
US-Israeli airstrikes have hit Iranian universities, including Sharif University of Technology and Shahid Beheshti University, with Iran saying more than 30 institutions were bombed. The attacks, framed as military targets of civilian education, prompt condemnation and UNESCO concern, and are likely to have lasting effects on Iran’s brain drain, funding, and student access to higher education even after any ceasefire.
Iran has absorbed massive US-Israeli attacks that have degraded its military but it remains a stubborn regional foe. The country is still capable of strikes in the region, including actions linked to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and damage to facilities in Kuwait, signaling that while weakened, Iran shows resilience and willingness to retaliate against perceived adversaries.
ISW-CTP’s latest update chronicles a fast-escalating conflict: the US-Israel campaign claims thousands of targets hit since Feb. 28, with the IDF reporting 170 targets struck in the last 24 hours and claims of destroying over 80% of Iran’s air defenses, including strikes on defense-industrial sites that likely degrade missiles and drones. The United States says about 150 Iranian vessels have been destroyed; NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian missile over Turkey. Iran and its proxies conducted counterstrikes across the Gulf region and into Iraq and Lebanon, including drone and missile attacks linked to the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah, alongside cross-border incidents near Kuwait and Haifa. The IAEA confirmed on March 29 that strikes on the Arak heavy-water reactor rendered the facility inoperable. Reports also note the deployment of PMF fighters to western Iran and continued strikes on key Iranian bases and industrial sites, signaling a multi-domain escalation and widespread regional disruption.
On day 24 of the US-Israel campaign against Iran, Tehran denies any negotiations with Washington despite Trump’s claim of “very good conversations” toward ending the war. Fighting and strikes persist across Iran, Israel and Gulf states, with Iranian retaliation threats and incidents such as an attack on a Bandar Abbas transmitter and strikes near Urmia, while Israel reports missile alerts around Dimona and Arad. Diplomatic tensions rise as the UK summons Iran’s envoy and Russia calls for an end to hostilities, amid further interceptions and attacks in the Gulf and spillover into Lebanon and Iraq, fueling global market jitters and energy-security concerns.
Three weeks into the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran, strikes reveal a multipronged strategy: decapitation and destruction of Iran’s missile, naval and security capacities, plus pressure on internal governance and basic services, while nuclear facilities have been comparatively spared. Analysts warn air power alone is unlikely to erase Iran’s nuclear program or end the war, signaling a potential long conflict. Diverging aims—Israel pursuing deeper regime destabilization vs. the US emphasizing denial and disengagement—underscore uncertainty about the endgame as thousands of strike events unfold and Iran retaliates.
The Pentagon is asking Congress to authorize roughly $200 billion to fund ongoing US-Israel operations against Iran, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying there is no timeframe to end; the request, on top of existing budget increases, faces uncertain congressional support as lawmakers demand more detail on strategy and goals, even as Trump defends the need in a volatile global context and officials note thousands of targets have already been struck and weapons like A-10s and AH-64s are in use.
Recent strikes on upstream gas facilities in Abu Dhabi’s Shah field and Iran’s South Pars gasfield mark a notable escalation in the Middle East conflict, with potential long-term global energy consequences if production is damaged and cannot be repaired quickly. Reactions from Iran, Qatar and the UAE cite energy security as a central stakes issue, while regional tensions rise and the prospect of further retaliation looms amid broader US-Israel-Gulf dynamics.
On day 18 of the US-Israel campaign against Iran, strikes hit multiple Iranian cities and Tehran warns of self-defence as Iran retaliates across the region, while the conflict fuels a global energy shock with oil prices rising and Gulf shipping disrupted; civilian casualties climb (including children in Arak) and displacement increases, and Amnesty International cites US responsibility for a deadly Minab primary school attack.
ISW-CTP reports Iran is using Russian-made Shahed drones against US bases and Gulf states, with Zelensky saying intelligence confirms it; the US-Israeli campaign continues targeting Iranian military and security infrastructure, while Iran claims a Sejjil missile strike on Israel. Gulf defenses intercepted most attacks as Hezbollah and Iraqi militias boost cross-border actions. Iran also reports internal crackdowns with arrests, and there is no indication that either side seeks a ceasefire, signaling ongoing escalation.
The conflict shows no quick end: US-Israel officials say Iran’s war could run about three more weeks, with thousands of targets still ahead, as strikes hit Kharg Island and various Iranian sites. President Trump seeks a new, solid deal while Tehran rejects negotiations; regional actors face spillovers and the Strait of Hormuz election-momentum grows into a broader maritime security debate, with oil markets and Gulf economies bracing for disruption.