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Warsh’s balance-sheet gambit could push the Fed to cut rates
Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh could push for rate relief by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, a move some economists say could amount to about 50 basis points of easing. His plan would try to offset balance-sheet tightening with lower rates, but selling assets is unlikely and inflation progress remains a constraint; Warsh will be pressed on independence at his Senate hearing, and any cuts would likely be gradual rather than swift.

IMF: Private credit won’t spark a 2008-style crisis, but risk remains
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Affluent Americans Grow More Pessimistic as Iran War Fuels Financial Anxiety
University of Michigan’s March reading shows U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 55.3 as the Iran war, higher gas prices and stock-market volatility spook households, with wealthier consumers posting the sharpest declines. Short-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% for the next year (vs 2.4% now), while long-run expectations eased to 3.2%. Economists warn that fading optimism among the affluent could translate into weaker spending, even as markets slid and the 10-year yield rose, signaling rising financial anxiety.

Trump’s Jones Act waiver tests energy markets and tanker stocks
President Trump issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to allow foreign-flagged tankers to carry fuel to U.S. refineries, aiming to ease supply disruptions amid Iran-related tensions. The move is described by the White House as boosting flow of vital resources, and it is the broadest Jones Act waiver in years, but analysts say near-term price effects may be modest. Oil prices rose on geopolitical developments, while Kinder Morgan (KMI), the largest U.S. tanker operator, traded lower as investors reassessed the policy’s impact on shipping costs and contracts.

March jobless claims hold near 213,000 as labor market stays sluggish but stable
First-time unemployment claims held at 213,000 in the latest week, marking a third straight week with little change and suggesting a sluggish but generally stable labor market. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, and economists had expected a rise to 215,000, easing concerns prompted by February’s payroll weakness.

Trump’s Iran clock ticks: market bets on a quick end to curb inflation risk
Markets price a rapid, Venezuela II–style end to the Iran conflict that would push oil lower and bolster Trump’s inflation strategy; but if the war lasts longer than a month, oil could rise, inflation could accelerate, and Fed rate cuts could be delayed, complicating his economic messaging.

January data could redraw the Fed's roadmap on rates as inflation lingers
Investors await January's jobs report and CPI to gauge whether inflation continues to cool while the labor market stays resilient. Economists anticipate about 55,000 new jobs with unemployment near 4.4%, a 0.3% rise in CPI (core also ~0.3%), and a 2.5% year-over-year inflation rate, possible signs the Fed could begin easing later in 2026. The Fed just left rates unchanged amid inflation concerns, but officials warn the path is uncertain, making the January data crucial for policy and markets.

Wholesale inflation sticks around as Warsh emerges as Fed chair prospect
Wholesale prices jumped 0.5% in December, keeping the year-over-year wholesale inflation at 3% and signaling inflation will likely stay above the Fed’s 2% target into early 2026; core prices rose 0.4% for the month, leaving the 12-month core at 3.5%. With President Trump naming Kevin Warsh as his Fed chair pick, the central bank faces the challenge of cooling inflation while keeping policy rates steady.

Tariffs Fall Short: U.S. Trade Deficit Stays Near Record High
The U.S. trade deficit remains near record highs despite tariffs, after a brief dip earlier in 2025; November alone showed a jump to $56.8 billion as imports rose and exports fell. Even when removing tariff effects and gold flows, deficits stay large, with 2025 tracking to one of the year’s largest gaps. Economists say tariffs and a cheaper dollar help, but persistent import demand (notably from Mexico and Vietnam) and AI-related equipment needs keep the deficit elevated, even as Q4 looks to be the year’s smallest deficit and could modestly boost GDP.

January blues persist as Americans doubt the economy's strength
Americans started 2026 in a foul mood even as the economy shows growth and unemployment remains low, with consumer confidence sinking to a 12-year low (84.5). Persistent inflation around 3% and a softer job market weigh on sentiment, underscoring a disconnect between strong headlines and public mood.

Fed pause endures, but the big question is how long it lasts
Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold rates this week, while markets price in the first potential cut around July and economists remain divided on whether there will be any cuts this year, with some predicting a June move and others forecasting none, all amid inflation stuck above target and a still-important role for the labor market in the trajectory.

Trump hints Hassett stay, boosting Warsh's odds to chair the Fed
President Trump signaled he may keep Kevin Hassett in his current White House role, sending the Fed chair race into a new phase as Kevin Warsh’s odds jumped. Prediction markets showed Warsh favored (Kalshi around 58%, Hassett about 17%), with Polymarket echoing the tilt, and markets reacting to the Trump remarks amid broader concerns tied to Powell’s situation and Senate confirmation dynamics. Analysts say Warsh would likely be dovish like Hassett but could shift if the economy strengthens, making the outcome contingent on political timing and Senate approvals.