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Inflation Expectations

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Hanke warns Trump's policy cocktail could push bond yields past the red line
finance6 days ago

Hanke warns Trump's policy cocktail could push bond yields past the red line

Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke argues that Trump’s fiscal-monetary mix forms a 'deadly cocktail' for Treasuries, with rapid money growth feeding higher inflation expectations and pushing long-term yields up. He says bond vigilantes are back and that yields have already breached a informal red line set by Scott Bessent (roughly 4% on the 10-year and about 5% on the 30-year), signaling a potential further selloff and spillover into equities and energy. Hanke predicts the 10-year could rise another ~50 basis points, while maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status despite debates about de-dollarization. The piece notes Fortune used generative AI for research.

via Yahoo Finance|
#bond-market#bond-vigilantes#finance
Treasury Yields Steady After Retail Slump and Iran Blockade Talks
business11 days ago

Treasury Yields Steady After Retail Slump and Iran Blockade Talks

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady near 4.645% after July retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% rise expected, while the 2-year yield slipped to about 4.117% and the 30-year rose to roughly 5.232%. Earlier gains were sparked by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments about possible Iran sanctions and an indefinite port blockade, with the PPI flat for July and CPI data previously in line with expectations. Analysts say inflation remains contained and eases some rate pressure, but real yields stay elevated.

via cnbc.com|
#business#inflation-expectations#iran-blockade
Gas-price relief lifts consumer mood, but momentum faces headwinds
business1 month ago

Gas-price relief lifts consumer mood, but momentum faces headwinds

Lower gas prices boosted the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index by about 10% to 54.4, the highest since February, with gains across age, income, wealth, and political group, though sentiment remains below a year ago. The relief could be short-lived amid ongoing Middle East tensions and energy-price volatility. June retail spending rose 0.2% (0.7% excluding gas), unemployment stood at 4.2%, and inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 4.2% from 4.6%, but remain well above pre-crisis levels. Economists caution that sentiment hasn’t consistently predicted spending in recent years.

via CNN|
#business#consumer-sentiment#energy-prices
New York Fed finds higher inflation expectations as healthcare and rent rise for households
economy1 month ago

New York Fed finds higher inflation expectations as healthcare and rent rise for households

The New York Fed's June Survey of Consumer Expectations shows median inflation expectations rising to 3.7% for the year ahead and 3.3% over three years. Respondents expect healthcare costs to surge about 9.4% and rent to climb about 8.3% in the next year, while gas costs ease. Pay growth is expected to 2.8%, unemployment expectations fall, and housing costs remain a key driver of consumer concerns amid a broader inflation backdrop.

via Yahoo Finance|
#consumer-surveys#economy#healthcare-costs
economy1 month ago

Fed Chair Warsh Goes Quiet as Markets Seek Clues

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has begun his tenure by offering little public guidance, pushing markets to rely on other officials for hints about policy while warning that forward guidance can trap policymakers; investors still price in potential rate moves as inflation remains above target and upcoming data looms, signaling a transition in the Fed's communication approach.

via Politico|
#economy#fed#forward-guidance
Warsh’s hawkish inflation stance steadies markets as oil falls
economy2 months ago

Warsh’s hawkish inflation stance steadies markets as oil falls

Kevin Warsh’s first Fed chair press conference has steadied markets by signaling a hard line on inflation, helping push down long‑term inflation expectations as oil prices fall and the Iran‑related tensions ease. Inflation data showed PCE at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4%, yet markets still price in at least one 25bp rate hike this year. Analysts say Warsh’s credibility rests on whether inflation moves toward the 2% target; if the data improve by September, he could stay tough without many hikes, but if not, further tightening may be needed to maintain credibility.

via Financial Times|
#economy#federal-reserve#inflation
May CPI Preview: Inflation Remains Hot as Energy Costs Spill Over
economy2 months ago

May CPI Preview: Inflation Remains Hot as Energy Costs Spill Over

The May consumer price index is due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus calling for a 4.2% annual inflation rate and a 0.5% monthly gain, the first CPI above 4% since May 2023. Core inflation is expected to be 2.9% year over year and 0.3% monthly. The report signals broader inflation pressures as energy prices rise and supply disruptions persist, with implications for markets and policy.

via CNBC|
#cpi#economy#energy-costs
Warsh Faces a Bond-Yield Test as a New Fed Era Dawns
economy3 months ago

Warsh Faces a Bond-Yield Test as a New Fed Era Dawns

Warsh takes the helm as global bond markets push long-term yields higher, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury around 5.11% amid energy-price shocks, AI-driven capital demand, and large deficits; investors debate whether the Fed should stay hawkish to keep inflation expectations anchored or cut to ease borrowing costs, while Warsh's AI-disinflation thesis has yet to show in the data.

via Axios|
#ai-investment#bond-yields#economy
Tariffs Knocked Down, AI Accelerates: Monday AM Reads
macroecon3 months ago

Tariffs Knocked Down, AI Accelerates: Monday AM Reads

Barry Ritholtz curates Monday AM Reads, highlighting a divided U.S. Court of International Trade ruling Trump’s 10% tariffs unlawful, inflation expectations remaining anchored helping the Fed, cognitive traps that make stock-market bubbles hard to spot, billionaire backlash over pied-à-terre taxes, and AI’s rapid advance per Stanford’s AI Index alongside the AI-labor debate, plus Iran’s potential endurance in Hormuz, and the historical arc from Buckley to Citizens United on money in politics.

via The Big Picture|
#ai#inflation-expectations#macroecon
U.S. consumer mood edges up from historic low as inflation fears linger
economy4 months ago

U.S. consumer mood edges up from historic low as inflation fears linger

The University of Michigan’s final April consumer sentiment index fell to 49.8, the lowest on records dating to 1952, but rose slightly from the preliminary reading after a ceasefire announcement and softer gas prices. Despite the modest rebound, Americans remain worried about finances as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.7% from 3.8% in March—the largest one-month rise since April 2025—leaving overall sentiment just below levels seen in mid-2022 when inflation peaked.

via CNN|
#consumer-sentiment#economic-outlook#economy
America’s economic mood sinks toward a record low in April
economy4 months ago

America’s economic mood sinks toward a record low in April

The University of Michigan’s preliminary April 2026 consumer sentiment index fell 11% to 47.6, potentially the lowest on record, reflecting broad American pessimism about the economy despite relatively low unemployment and inflation. Near-term inflation expectations rose to 4.8% and longer-run expectations to 3.4%; sentiment dropped across Democrats and Republicans. Analysts say confidence could improve if Iran-related supply disruptions ease and gas prices moderate.

via Axios|
#april-2026#consumer-sentiment#economic-confidence
Fed Governor Sees About a Point of Easing This Year Amid Oil Spike
business4 months ago

Fed Governor Sees About a Point of Easing This Year Amid Oil Spike

Fed Governor Stephen Miran again urged rate cuts, saying policy could be about a point lower over the year even as oil prices spike, arguing the energy shock won’t drive inflation unless wage-price dynamics deteriorate and inflation expectations rise. He notes policy acts with a lag and inflation expectations remain anchored, and he has dissented at every meeting since September 2025; markets expect no moves this year, and Warsh’s chairmanship remains blocked.

via CNBC|
#business#fed#inflation-expectations