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Inflation Expectations

All articles tagged with #inflation expectations

markets10 days ago•20 min saved

Bond Yields Climb as Real Rates Reflect Strong Economy, Not Just Inflation

U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, but analysis suggests the primary driver is strong economic growth rather than inflation fears. Real yields, which reflect growth expectations, have increased by 0.66 percentage points over the last month, accounting for most of the 0.72 percentage point rise in five-year Treasury notes. Inflation expectations have contributed only 0.06 percentage points to this change. This shift indicates that investors are pricing in a robust economy, supported by low unemployment claims and strong corporate profit forecasts, despite rising energy costs and consumer sentiment concerns.

via Yahoo Finance|

#economic-growth #federal-reserve #inflation-expectations

economy27 days ago•1 min saved

Inflation fears push U.S. consumer confidence to near-record lows in September

The University of Michigan's September sentiment index fell to 47.8—the second-lowest on record—while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% amid higher energy and fuel prices, signaling a dimmer consumer outlook and increasing odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

via cnbc.com|

#consumer-sentiment #economy #energy-prices

markets29 days ago•1 min saved

Oil spike above $100 lifts U.S. Treasuries to fresh yield highs

Oil rose above $100 a barrel, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to multiyear highs with the 10-year at about 4.908%, the 2-year at 4.518%, and the 30-year near 5.332%. The move comes as inflation fears mount ahead of Friday’s consumer price data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, despite a tame wholesale inflation report showing prices up 0.4% in August and core up 0.2%.

via CNBC|

#bond-market #fed-policy #inflation-expectations

economy1 month ago•3 min saved

Energy shock from conflict lifts oil, fuels higher yields and market nerves

War-driven energy tensions push Brent toward $95 and diesel to a record $4.73/gal, lifting inflation expectations and global bond yields (U.S. 10-year ~4.8%), while stocks drift as markets price in higher energy costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

via Axios|

#bond-yields #economy #energy

markets1 month ago•20 min saved

Iran tensions spark oil rally as stock futures slip on inflation jitters

U.S. stock futures slipped in premarket trading as tensions with Iran escalated and oil prices spiked above $95 a barrel, lifting inflation expectations and Treasury yields. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures edged lower ahead of ADP data and an earnings slate that includes Broadcom and Snowflake. Dell Technologies meanwhile surged after reporting record AI server orders and backlog, raising its full-year revenue outlook.

via Yahoo Finance|

#inflation-expectations #iran-tensions #markets

finance1 month ago•11 min saved

Real Yields Push Long-Term Rates Higher, Even as Inflation Signals Fade

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped about 0.1 percentage point after Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, but inflation expectations have barely moved; the move is driven by higher real yields tied to growth, Fed policy expectations, and heavy government borrowing, with the 30-year yield pressing toward 5.27% and posing a fresh headwind for equities even as earnings stay strong.

via Yahoo Finance|

#finance #inflation-expectations #jackson-hole

economy1 month ago•5 min saved

Yield moves signal growth optimism, not credibility concerns

An FT opinion argues that the rise in long-dated US Treasuries does not indicate worries about debt sustainability or Fed credibility. Inflation expectations remain anchored near the 2% target, while the real rate and term premium stay largely stable; higher yields mainly reflect higher expected long-run overnight rates. Investors are pricing in faster potential growth from AI, deregulation and tax policy, which could improve the fiscal path as revenues grow faster than outlays. Tariff revenue has been volatile, but as refunds fade and growth accelerates, deficits should decline, with easing energy shocks helping to bring inflation and rates down. The piece supports liquidity provision and regular, shorter-term debt issuance to maintain market stability while deficits shrink.

via Financial Times|

#economy #growth-expectations #inflation-expectations

finance1 month ago•23 min saved

Hanke warns Trump's policy cocktail could push bond yields past the red line

Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke argues that Trump’s fiscal-monetary mix forms a 'deadly cocktail' for Treasuries, with rapid money growth feeding higher inflation expectations and pushing long-term yields up. He says bond vigilantes are back and that yields have already breached a informal red line set by Scott Bessent (roughly 4% on the 10-year and about 5% on the 30-year), signaling a potential further selloff and spillover into equities and energy. Hanke predicts the 10-year could rise another ~50 basis points, while maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status despite debates about de-dollarization. The piece notes Fortune used generative AI for research.

via Yahoo Finance|

#bond-market #bond-vigilantes #finance

business1 month ago•1 min saved

Treasury Yields Steady After Retail Slump and Iran Blockade Talks

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady near 4.645% after July retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% rise expected, while the 2-year yield slipped to about 4.117% and the 30-year rose to roughly 5.232%. Earlier gains were sparked by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments about possible Iran sanctions and an indefinite port blockade, with the PPI flat for July and CPI data previously in line with expectations. Analysts say inflation remains contained and eases some rate pressure, but real yields stay elevated.

via cnbc.com|

#business #inflation-expectations #iran-blockade

business2 months ago•326 min saved

Gas-price relief lifts consumer mood, but momentum faces headwinds

Lower gas prices boosted the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index by about 10% to 54.4, the highest since February, with gains across age, income, wealth, and political group, though sentiment remains below a year ago. The relief could be short-lived amid ongoing Middle East tensions and energy-price volatility. June retail spending rose 0.2% (0.7% excluding gas), unemployment stood at 4.2%, and inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 4.2% from 4.6%, but remain well above pre-crisis levels. Economists caution that sentiment hasn’t consistently predicted spending in recent years.

via CNN|

#business #consumer-sentiment #energy-prices

economy3 months ago•15 min saved

New York Fed finds higher inflation expectations as healthcare and rent rise for households

The New York Fed's June Survey of Consumer Expectations shows median inflation expectations rising to 3.7% for the year ahead and 3.3% over three years. Respondents expect healthcare costs to surge about 9.4% and rent to climb about 8.3% in the next year, while gas costs ease. Pay growth is expected to 2.8%, unemployment expectations fall, and housing costs remain a key driver of consumer concerns amid a broader inflation backdrop.

via Yahoo Finance|

#consumer-surveys #economy #healthcare-costs

economy3 months ago•18 min saved

Bond Market Bets on More Fed Hikes as Short-Term Yields Near 4%

The six-month Treasury yield rose to about 4% as the bond market prices in multiple Fed rate hikes, with 1- and 2-year yields climbing and banks offering brokered CDs above 4% to attract deposits, signaling higher funding costs and tighter policy ahead.

via Wolf Street|

#6-month-treasury #bond-market #economy

economy3 months ago•7 min saved

Fed Chair Warsh Goes Quiet as Markets Seek Clues

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has begun his tenure by offering little public guidance, pushing markets to rely on other officials for hints about policy while warning that forward guidance can trap policymakers; investors still price in potential rate moves as inflation remains above target and upcoming data looms, signaling a transition in the Fed's communication approach.

via Politico|

#economy #fed #forward-guidance

business3 months ago•3 min saved

Michigan Consumer Confidence Rebounds in June as Gas Prices Ease

US University of Michigan final June sentiment rose to 49.5, rebounding from a 46-year low as lower gas prices and easing inflation expectations improved both current conditions and consumer outlook.

via Forex Factory|

#business #consumer-sentiment #economic-indicators

economy3 months ago•4 min saved

Warsh’s hawkish inflation stance steadies markets as oil falls

Kevin Warsh’s first Fed chair press conference has steadied markets by signaling a hard line on inflation, helping push down long‑term inflation expectations as oil prices fall and the Iran‑related tensions ease. Inflation data showed PCE at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4%, yet markets still price in at least one 25bp rate hike this year. Analysts say Warsh’s credibility rests on whether inflation moves toward the 2% target; if the data improve by September, he could stay tough without many hikes, but if not, further tightening may be needed to maintain credibility.

via Financial Times|

#economy #federal-reserve #inflation