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Pce Price Index

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August PCE Data Shows Mixed Signals: Core Inflation Cools, Energy Prices Spike
economy12 days ago

August PCE Data Shows Mixed Signals: Core Inflation Cools, Energy Prices Spike

The Commerce Department reported that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in August, holding steady at a 3% annual rate, while the overall PCE index increased 0.3% to 3.4% annually. This data suggests underlying inflation is cooling, but energy costs remain elevated due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Consumer spending grew 0.6%, the fastest pace in over a year, though the savings rate fell to a four-year low of 4.1%. The Federal Reserve is now expected to hold interest rates steady at its late October meeting, as the cooler core inflation figures reduce pressure for another hike despite the broader economic strength indicated by revised GDP growth.

via finance.yahoo.com|
#consumer-spending#economy#federal-reserve
Methodology revisions and energy shocks shape August PCE inflation report
economy13 days ago

Methodology revisions and energy shocks shape August PCE inflation report

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, with core inflation at 3.0%, both below analyst expectations. This cooling was partly driven by methodological revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which lowered prior months' figures. Despite the lower headline numbers, energy prices surged due to the war in Iran, and consumer spending remained strong. The Federal Reserve is now expected to hold rates in October, with a potential hike delayed until December.

via CNBC|
#economy#federal-reserve#gdp
Jackson Hole: Fed officials warn inflation remains stubborn as symposium opens
economy1 month ago

Jackson Hole: Fed officials warn inflation remains stubborn as symposium opens

As the Jackson Hole economic symposium opens, three Federal Reserve officials warn that inflation remains stubborn and above target, signaling that policy action could still be on the table. KC Fed president Jeffrey Schmid questions how restrictive current rates are, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack says now is the time to act to restore credibility, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee warns inflation could reaccelerate if data don’t improve. With the July PCE price index around 3% and markets weighing potential moves later in 2026, officials highlight data dependence and vigilance on returning inflation to 2%.

via Yahoo Finance|
#economy#federal-reserve#inflation
economy4 months ago

BEA: April 2026 Personal Income Flat as Spending Rises

BEA's April 2026 personal income fell marginally (less than $0.1B) while disposable personal income slipped 0.1%; meanwhile personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5%, lifting total outlays by about $114B. Personal saving was $611.7B (2.6% saving rate). Real DPI dropped 0.5% and real PCE increased 0.1%, with the PCE price index up 0.4% (0.2% excluding food and energy). The income decline was mainly due to farm proprietors’ income tied to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, with compensation led by private wages and salaries. Next BEA release is June 25, 2026.

via U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)|
#bea#dpi#economy
economy4 months ago

US GDP Q1 2026 grows 1.6% as exports and investment lead, consumer spending softer

Real GDP rose 1.6% in Q1 2026 (SAAR), revised downward from the 2.0% advance, with gains from exports, investment, consumer spending, and government outlays, offset by higher imports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 2.4%. The PCE price index increased 4.5% (4.4% ex food and energy). Real GDI rose 0.9%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.3%. Corporate profits from current production rose by $40.4 billion in Q1. Revisions to inventories and health-care services partly explain the downgrade; tariff refunds under IEEPA do not affect GDP. Next BEA release is June 25, 2026.

via U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)|
#bea#corporate-profits#economy
PCE Inflation Jumps Ahead of Iran Conflict, Keeping Fed Hikes in Play
economy-and-politics6 months ago

PCE Inflation Jumps Ahead of Iran Conflict, Keeping Fed Hikes in Play

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.4% for a third straight month (core also +0.4%), lifting the year-over-year PCE to 2.8% and core PCE to 3.0%—still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts expect near-term oil-price spikes linked to the Iran conflict to push prices higher and delay rate cuts, with the market reacting to higher rates and a softer economy if the conflict persists.

via MarketWatch|
#core-pce#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve
December inflation ticks up again, keeping Fed wary of slow cooling
economics7 months ago

December inflation ticks up again, keeping Fed wary of slow cooling

U.S. inflation accelerated in December as the Commerce Department’s PCE price index rose 0.4% for the month and 2.9% from a year earlier, the fastest yearly rise since March 2024. Core PCE also climbed 0.4% MoM and 3.0% YoY. Yet spending rose 0.4% and while gas prices fell, electricity and natural gas costs rose. The Federal Reserve left rates around 3.6%, with officials wanting inflation closer to 2% before considering rate cuts.

via PBS|
#consumer-spending#core-pce#economics
economy1 year ago

US Consumer Spending Rises in October Amid Persistent Inflation

In October 2024, U.S. personal income rose by $147.4 billion (0.6%), while disposable personal income increased by $144.1 billion (0.7%). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew by $72.3 billion (0.4%). The PCE price index rose 0.2%, with a 0.3% increase excluding food and energy. Real disposable income and real PCE saw modest gains of 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. The increase in income was driven by higher compensation and asset income, while PCE growth was led by services, particularly healthcare and housing. The personal saving rate was 4.4%.

via Bureau of Economic Analysis|
#consumer-spending#disposable-income#economic-growth
"Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Steady in April"
economics2 years ago

"Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Steady in April"

U.S. inflation remained steady in April, with the PCE price index rising 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, matching March's figures. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The data suggests that inflation may persist longer than expected, complicating the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates. Market reactions were mixed, with slight gains in stocks and a dip in Treasury yields. Analysts noted that while the inflation data met expectations, weaker consumer spending could impact future economic conditions.

via Yahoo Finance|
#consumer-spending#economics#federal-reserve
"Cooling Inflation Gauge Sparks Optimism for Stocks"
economics2 years ago

"Cooling Inflation Gauge Sparks Optimism for Stocks"

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index minus food and energy, is expected to show a modest increase of 0.2% in April, indicating some relief from persistent price pressures. This data supports the Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, as officials seek more evidence of sustained progress towards their 2% inflation target. The overall PCE price index is projected to rise 0.3% for the third consecutive month, highlighting the uneven progress in the Fed's inflation battle.

via Yahoo Finance|
#economics#federal-reserve#inflation
"February's Rise: Key Fed Inflation Gauge and Consumer Spending"
economy2 years ago

"February's Rise: Key Fed Inflation Gauge and Consumer Spending"

The Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 2.5% annually in February, in line with expectations, while consumer spending spiked 0.8% last month, surpassing projections. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% and anticipates three rate cuts this year, with financial markets expecting the first cut in June. Stubborn inflation has led to lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, prompting the Fed to closely monitor economic data before making any decisions.

via Fox Business|
#consumer-spending#economy#federal-reserve
"US Inflation Rises to 2.8% Annually, Fed Chair Powell to Address Concerns"
finance2 years ago

"US Inflation Rises to 2.8% Annually, Fed Chair Powell to Address Concerns"

The core PCE price index, a key Federal Reserve inflation measure, rose 0.3% in February, keeping a June rate cut on the table. Fed chair Jerome Powell's prediction of the monthly increase proved accurate, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Personal income rose 0.3%, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.8% in February. Market pricing shows 64% odds of a rate cut by the June 12 meeting, with 70% odds of three quarter-point rate cuts by year-end 2024.

via Investor's Business Daily|
#federal-reserve#finance#inflation
"US Economy: Inflation Rises to 2.8% Annually, Growth Revised Up to 3.4%"
economy2 years ago

"US Economy: Inflation Rises to 2.8% Annually, Growth Revised Up to 3.4%"

The key inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 2.8% annually in February, in line with expectations, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve from considering interest rate cuts. The core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis, while consumer spending surged 0.8% on the month, indicating additional inflation pressures. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, and while the numbers are not ideal, they are not unexpected. The release comes after the Fed held its benchmark rate steady and indicated it has not seen enough progress on inflation to consider cutting, with market expectations aligning with the Fed's projections for three rate cuts this year.

via CNBC|
#consumer-spending#economy#federal-reserve