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Uncertainty

All articles tagged with #uncertainty

Nuanced verdicts: scientists' real view on K2-18b and Mars biosignatures
science1 month ago

Nuanced verdicts: scientists' real view on K2-18b and Mars biosignatures

Astrobiologists surveyed after the 2025 exoplanet and Mars biosignature claims showed cautious, non‑binary views: only 6.6% thought life on K2‑18b is probable, and about 15% held that view for Mars, with the majority neutral or skeptical. Strong disagreements faded as evidence differed—remote atmospheric signals for K2‑18b versus direct rock analysis on Mars—highlighting how non-biological processes can mimic biosignatures and how uncertainty drives early conclusions. The authors argue for systematically measuring scientists’ opinions to avoid oversimplified “the science says” narratives, noting this approach could shed light on other contested topics across science.

via The Conversation|
#astrobiology#exoplanets#mars
CBS Poll Finds Americans anxious about finances and skeptical of Trump's economic plan
politics1 month ago

CBS Poll Finds Americans anxious about finances and skeptical of Trump's economic plan

A CBS News/YouGov poll finds Americans are stressed about finances and view the economy as uncertain and unfair, with three-quarters saying incomes aren’t keeping up with inflation. Voters express frustration with Trump’s economic approach and say neither party is clearly helping with the cost of living, while concerns about AI job loss and a pessimistic outlook for growth persist.

via CBS News|
#economy#inflation#politics
Train Your Brain to Embrace Uncertainty and See Possibilities
neuroscience2 months ago

Train Your Brain to Embrace Uncertainty and See Possibilities

The article argues that our brains are wired to fear uncertainty due to energy costs and negativity bias, but we can train ourselves to tolerate ambiguity by cultivating curiosity, seeking diverse perspectives, practicing critical thinking, and regulating emotions. By recognizing that perception constructs reality and learning to hold multiple interpretations, we can foster flexible, creative thinking. Practical steps include asking what is not yet known, learning from adaptive environments (like Formula One teams), mindful breathing, mindfulness, regular exercise, and mindful information consumption, all while balancing realism with cautious optimism. The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty but to relate to it in a way that enhances learning, decision-making, and openness to possibility.

via The Guardian|
#adaptability#cognitive-biases#emotional-regulation
Amygdala Shifts Between Learning Strategies to Enable Flexible Choices
science4 months ago

Amygdala Shifts Between Learning Strategies to Enable Flexible Choices

New Dartmouth-led research reframes the amygdala as a dynamic arbiter that toggles between action-based and stimulus-based learning under uncertainty, promoting flexible decision-making. When the amygdala is damaged, arbitration becomes random and behavior locks into rigid action-based patterns. The findings offer a potential path for treating phobias and anxiety by encouraging action-based exploration over stimulus-driven fear, and pave the way for further studies on how the amygdala coordinates with prefrontal circuits to guide learning.

via Neuroscience News|
#amygdala#arbitration#decision-making
Tariff upheaval leaves businesses and shoppers facing uncertainty
world4 months ago

Tariff upheaval leaves businesses and shoppers facing uncertainty

Following a Supreme Court ruling that blocked reciprocal tariffs, Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to impose a new 10% global tariff, later hinted to rise to 15%, creating widespread uncertainty for businesses and consumers as existing trade deals may be overridden, refunds for past levies remain unclear, and higher import costs could push prices higher, with UK exporters potentially facing billions in extra costs and firms considering diversification away from the US.

via BBC|
#section-122#tariffs#trade-policy
Tariffs in Turmoil: Small Biz Hit Hard by 2025 Trade Push
economy4 months ago

Tariffs in Turmoil: Small Biz Hit Hard by 2025 Trade Push

The Dispatch chronicles how Trump’s 2025 tariff program, under IEEPA, disrupted American commerce and squeezed small businesses. Stories like Busy Baby Mat’s owner cutting staff and draining savings illustrate widespread revenue losses and looming costs as shipments stalled and duties rose. While tariff revenue increased, studies say Americans shoulder about 96% of tariff costs. The Supreme Court could rule the tariffs illegal, potentially triggering refunds, but uncertainty remains whether the administration will reinstate tariffs under other codes, prompting firms to rethink supply chains and some to seek suppliers abroad.

via The Dispatch|
#economy#smallbusiness#supremecourt