
IEA foresees first global oil-demand dip since 2020 amid Hormuz disruption
The IEA forecasts world oil demand to fall by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026—the first annual decline since 2020—driven by the disruption of Middle East exports from the Strait of Hormuz. A gradual rebound is anticipated if a ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz materialize, but renewed clashes could derail the outlook. The market could swing back to a surplus toward year-end as other producers boost supply and demand remains softer than pre-war forecasts, though uncertainties from U.S.–Iran tensions persist.













