Tag

Forecasting

All articles tagged with #forecasting

science23 days ago•7 min saved

SWOT Satellite Reveals New Dispersive Dynamics in a Pacific Tsunami

NASA’s SWOT satellite captured the first high-resolution, wide-area view of a Pacific tsunami from the Kamchatka quake, revealing dispersive wave energy and complex interactions not predicted by classic non-dispersive models. By combining SWOT data with DART buoy measurements, researchers refined the rupture length to about 400 km and highlighted the potential for smarter, faster tsunami forecasting, though real-time use remains a challenge.

via Indian Defence Review|

#forecasting #nasa #oceanography

science1 month ago•18 min saved

SWOT Satellite Reveals Braided Pacific Tsunami and Forecast Implications

The SWOT satellite captured the first high-resolution, spaceborne swath of a Pacific-wide tsunami triggered by the 2025 Kuril–Kamchatka quake, revealing a braided energy pattern and dispersive waves that challenge traditional non-dispersive tsunami models; by combining SWOT data with DART sensors and seismic records, scientists revised the rupture length and underscored the need to merge multiple data streams for more accurate near-real-time tsunami forecasting.

via Earth.com|

#forecasting #oceanography #satellite

analysis4 months ago•27 min saved

2025 Predictions: What Came True and What Missed the Mark

The article reviews 2025 predictions, with 19 correct, 4 incorrect, and 2 undecided, covering politics, science, technology, and culture, highlighting the accuracy and challenges of forecasting future events.

via Vox|

#2025 #analysis #current-events

business5 months ago•6 min saved

Polymarket: The Prediction Market Revolution and Its Young Billionaire CEO

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market led by CEO Shayne Coplan, claims to be the most accurate source for predicting real-world events, with a history of outperforming experts in forecasts such as the 2024 US presidential election. The platform allows users to bet on outcomes across various categories, providing valuable insights and attracting significant investment, including a recent $2 billion from the NYSE owner. Despite regulatory challenges and legal issues, Polymarket aims to expand its user base globally and become a major tool for forecasting future events.

via CBS News|

#business #cryptocurrency #forecasting

weather2 years ago•7 min saved

"Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes Pose Major Evacuation Challenges"

As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins, forecasters warn of more storms that could rapidly intensify, a phenomenon that has historically been difficult to predict. However, advancements in technology and data collection have improved forecasting capabilities. Rapid intensification, where wind speeds increase dramatically in a short period, has been linked to catastrophic hurricanes in the past. The National Hurricane Center and other agencies are using new tools to better predict these events, though challenges remain, as evidenced by Hurricane Otis's unexpected intensification last year.

via USA TODAY|

#atlantic-hurricane-season #climate-change #forecasting

business2 years ago•2 min saved

"Bank of England's Overhaul: Improving Inflation Forecasting and Market Guidance"

The Bank of England has announced plans to overhaul its forecasting process for the British economy following criticism for underestimating inflation. The review, led by former Federal Reserve chair Ben S. Bernanke, aims to improve the bank's ability to predict economic growth and inflation, particularly during times of high uncertainty. The overhaul includes 12 recommendations such as revising the presentation of inflation forecasts, reevaluating underlying assumptions, and investing in software and economic models. The bank has committed to implementing these changes, but acknowledges that substantial investment and time will be required.

via The New York Times|

#bank-of-england #business #economic-uncertainty

weather-forecasting2 years ago•5 min saved

"Assessing the Safety and Visibility of the April 8th Total Solar Eclipse"

The cloud cover forecast for the upcoming solar eclipse on April 8 is still uncertain, as predicting clouds is challenging due to small-scale atmospheric processes. Meteorologists are using ensemble models to analyze a range of possible weather outcomes and their probabilities. While deterministic forecasts show extensive cloud cover along the eclipse path, AI weather forecasting start-up Excarta claims its forecasts can be 20% more accurate than traditional models, with current predictions showing varying cloud cover percentages for cities in the eclipse path. The Washington Post will launch its own eclipse cloud forecast tracker, but forecast confidence may not be high until just a day or two before the event.

via The Washington Post|

#ai-weather-forecasting #cloud-cover #ensemble-models

astronomy2 years ago•3 min saved

"Forecasting the Impact of the April 2024 Total Solar Eclipse"

Clouds can impact the experience of a total eclipse, with some experts advising not to worry about overcast skies while others warn that clouds can ruin the event. The type of clouds present will determine the impact on visibility, with high, feathery cirrus clouds potentially allowing the eclipse to be seen, while thick, low stratus clouds could obstruct the view. Local forecast discussions from the National Weather Service can provide insight into predicted and current cloud types, helping eclipse chasers prepare for potential viewing conditions.

via USA TODAY|

#astronomy #clouds #eclipse

economics2 years ago•3 min saved

"Economists' Forecast Failures Undermine Credibility Amid Economic Uncertainty"

Economists are facing criticism for inaccurate forecasts on inflation, global supply chain disruptions, and a recession that did not materialize. Factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and changing consumer behavior have made it difficult for economists to predict economic trends. Central banks have had to adjust interest rates in response to unexpected inflation, and there is a growing recognition that traditional economic models need to be expanded to incorporate new variables and methodologies.

via Yahoo News|

#economic-models #economics #economists

financeeconomy2 years ago•2 min saved

"Wall Street Befuddled by U.S. Economy as Strong GDP Data Sparks Optimism"

Wall Street and the Federal Reserve have consistently underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy in 2023, with GDP growth outpacing their forecasts in each quarter. Despite initial expectations of no growth or even contraction, the economy performed much better than anticipated, leading to surprise and adjustment in forecasts throughout the year. The Federal Reserve also missed the mark with its growth projections, highlighting the challenges of forecasting an economy emerging from a pandemic and unprecedented fiscal stimulus.

via MarketWatch|

#federal-reserve #financeeconomy #forecasting

weather2 years ago•3 min saved

"Portland Metro Braces for Freezing Rain and East Wind Blast"

After a brief warm-up, the metro area will experience another blast of east wind on Thursday, bringing freezing rain to parts of the eastern/central metro area. The Columbia River Gorge will continue to be affected by easterly winds, leading to icy conditions and potential road closures. Dry weather is expected on Friday, with a possibility of freezing rain in the metro area on Saturday.

via Fox 12 Oregon|

#columbia-river-gorge #forecasting #freezing-rain

weather2 years ago•1 min saved

"Columbus Braces for Chilly Weekend as Snow Forecast Looms"

Ohio and much of the Midwest are preparing for potential winter weather and significant snowfall this weekend. Meteorologists are tracking a system over 2,000 miles away in the Pacific Ocean, which will affect the region's weather depending on its path. Accurate forecasting becomes more reliable as the system approaches, with the best predictions available one to two days before the weather event.

via ABC6OnYourSide.com|

##forecasting #meteorology

science-and-technology2 years ago•0 min saved

"China's Gansu Earthquake: Ominous Signal, Sub-Zero Rescues, and Over 100 Lives Lost"

Chinese scientists successfully forecasted a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Gansu using text alerts from multiple sensors with anomalous readings, although they couldn't pinpoint the exact location. By monitoring Earth's gravitational field, researchers in Shaanxi identified anomalies as earthquake indicators and calculated a high probability of the Gansu earthquake within three to five days. The China Earthquake Early Warning Network efficiently sent alerts within 30 seconds, with some areas receiving alerts in just 12 seconds, demonstrating the system's effectiveness.

via Times of India|

#china #china-earthquake-early-warning-network #earthquake

science-and-technology2 years ago•62 min saved

Predicting microbial community dynamics with integrated meta-omics

Researchers have developed a framework for forecasting the dynamics of complex microbial communities using integrated meta-omics data. The study focused on a microbial community in a biological wastewater treatment plant (BWWTP) and used a combination of techniques including singular value decomposition (SVD) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. The researchers identified 17 temporal signals representing different ecological events in the community and established causal relationships between these signals. The framework successfully predicted gene abundance and expression in the microbial community, demonstrating its potential for understanding and managing microbial ecosystems.

via Nature.com|

#bwwtps #environmental-parameters #forecasting

weather2 years ago•2 min saved

El Niño's Impact on Winter Weather Across the US

As the hurricane season approaches its final month, the impact of the strengthening El Niño on the season's activity remains uncertain. While El Niño is typically associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, this year has seen 20 storms and six hurricanes, contrary to expectations. Factors such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and climate change may have a more significant influence on the season than El Niño. Climate experts suggest that traditional weather patterns are evolving due to climate change, making it challenging for forecasters to predict the level of activity in the remaining weeks of the season.

via Fox Weather |

#climate-change #el-nino #forecasting