Solar storms could push crowded low-Earth orbit into a 2.8-day debris cascade
A study led by Sarah Thiele warns that today’s mega-constellations in low-Earth orbit are so crowded and maneuver-dependent that a rare disruption, especially a solar storm, could overwhelm collision-avoidance systems. Using the CRASH Clock metric, researchers estimate that a complete loss of command over avoidance could trigger a catastrophic collision in about 2.8 days, far faster than the late-2010s risk, with even a 24-hour outage carrying roughly a 30% chance of a major debris-producing event. The work highlights the fragile infrastructure of crowded space and the need for robust contingency planning amid ongoing mega-constellations.
